As I sat watching the Golden State Warriors complete their historic 73-9 regular season back in 2016, I remember thinking how the championship felt like a foregone conclusion. The sportsbooks certainly agreed - Golden State entered the playoffs as overwhelming -200 favorites, meaning you'd have to risk $200 just to win $100 back. But looking back now with the benefit of hindsight, the 2016 NBA Championship odds tell a fascinating story about expectations versus reality, about how close we came to seeing a very different champion crowned.
I've always been fascinated by championship odds because they represent the collective wisdom of both analytics and public sentiment. That 2016 season presented one of the most intriguing betting landscapes I've ever seen. Behind the Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs sat at +350 after winning 67 games themselves, creating what felt like a two-team race. But what many forget is that LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers, despite being the Eastern Conference favorites, were only the third choice at +600. The Oklahoma City Thunder lingered as an interesting dark horse at +1200, while teams like the Los Angeles Clippers (+1800) and Toronto Raptors (+2500) were seen as longshots who could maybe, just maybe, pull off a miracle.
The playoffs unfolded in a way that made the oddsmakers look brilliant initially. Golden State cruised through the first two rounds, while Cleveland looked dominant in the East. But then something remarkable happened - the Thunder, led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, nearly changed everything. When they took a 3-1 lead over the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, the championship odds shifted dramatically. For a brief moment, Oklahoma City became the betting favorite, and I remember seriously considering putting money on them. Their athleticism and length caused Golden State problems we hadn't seen all season.
This reminds me of a conversation I had with basketball analyst Michael Phillips about matchup problems. Phillips found it hard to compare Akowe to some of the past bigs he faced in the past, but from the top of his mind, he said, "Probably [Emman] Ojuola from FEU." That's exactly what Steven Adams and the Thunder's frontcourt represented - an unexpected matchup problem that analytics might not have fully captured. Sometimes championship odds can't account for these stylistic mismatches that only become apparent when teams actually face each other in a seven-game series.
Of course, we all know what happened next. Golden State staged their incredible comeback against Oklahoma City, setting up a Finals rematch with Cleveland where they were again heavy favorites - around -220 after taking a 3-1 lead. At that point, I thought the debate about 2016 NBA Championship odds was settled. The Warriors had survived their biggest test, and Cleveland seemed overmatched. The analytics gave Golden State a 97% chance to win the title when they went up 3-1. I'll admit - I bought into those numbers completely.
Which makes what happened next perhaps the greatest lesson in why sports can never be fully reduced to probabilities. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving delivered performances for the ages, Draymond Green's suspension changed the series dynamics, and Cleveland engineered the most improbable comeback in NBA history. Those +600 preseason odds on the Cavaliers suddenly looked like incredible value for anyone bold enough to bet against the Warriors.
Looking back, I think the 2016 championship odds got several things right - they correctly identified Golden State as the team to beat and recognized San Antonio's regular season excellence. But they underestimated the championship mettle of LeBron James, the importance of playoff experience, and the way matchups can override regular season success. The Thunder at +1200 might have actually represented the best value, given how close they came to eliminating the Warriors. Meanwhile, teams like the Clippers at +1800 never really threatened to make a deep run despite their talent.
The discussion about 2016 NBA Championship odds ultimately teaches us that while analytics and betting markets are incredibly sophisticated, they can't capture the human element of sports - the pressure, the legacy motivations, the unpredictable ways that matchups unfold. I've learned to treat championship odds as educated starting points rather than predictions. They're fascinating to track throughout a season, but as 2016 proved, the games still need to be played, and underdogs can become champions in the most dramatic fashion imaginable. That's why we watch, and that's why the conversation about who has the best chances to win continues to captivate us every season.
French Soccer League©